U.S. consumption of packaging materials is predicted to grow by 3.2% annually in current dollars to 2001, reaching $99.3 billion, up from $85.2 billion in 1996. Unit volume is forecast to grow at only 1.5% annually during this time. By contrast, current dollar gross domestic product is estimated to rise by about 4.5% a year, comprised of 2.5% real growth and 2.0% increase due to inflation. Slow growth is forecast since the major consuming industries, including foods and other nondurables, will grow only modestly in unit volume, generally at the same rate as population growth according to a new survey released.

Intra-material competition in the industry will continue to be intense. Plastics and laminated flexible packaging have replaced some paper. While plastics packaging will grow at 4.6% annually over the five-year period, other types of packaging will experience only moderate or slow growth, stated the new third edition of the Rauch Guide to the U.S. Packaging Industry, published by Impact Marketing Consultants, Manchester Center, Vermont. Paperboard and molded pulp, the largest type of packaging materials, will increase 3.1% annually, inline with forecast growth in GDP and the production of consumer non-durables that are major end uses for corrugated containers and folding cartons.

The guide also ranks the largest packaging companies. According to Impact Marketing, Stone Container is the largest U.S. packaging company with sales of $3 billion. Crown Cork & Seal, a major player in metal cans, plastic containers and closures, ranks second with sales of $2.7 million. In addition, the top ten suppliers by market share are: Tenneco Packaging, Owens-Illinois, American National Can, Jefferson Smurfit, International Paper, Weyerhauser, Temple-Inland and Georgia-Pacific.

Profitability of the packaging industry is also explored within the guide. The largest 35 companies, those with annual sales of more than $300 million and at least 40% of their sales from all types of packaging, had a return on stockholders' equity of 15.8% in 1996 and a margin on sales of 5.9%. Sealed Air, a manufacturer of bubble packaging and other paperboard and plastics packaging, ranks first with a return on stockholders' equity of 37.1%. Caraustar, a producer of converted recycled paperboard, ranks second with a return of 33.9%.