Month after month, the economic picture in the United States hasn't varied. Consumers continue to spend at a torrid pace; the unemployment rate falls; the inflation rate stays low; and business activity grows rapidly. This economic scenario has been going on for more than eight years now, confounding analysts who keep predicting it can't keep up much longer. Yet, most indicators suggest a slowing isn't imminent.

Consumers show few signs that they are ready to halt their spending sprees. Compared over a 12-month period, retail sales in March were a whopping 8.7% higher than they were in March 1998. With inflation for goods low, most of the increase represented more items taken home, not higher prices. Personal consumption spending, which includes services not part of retail sales, increased at a 6.5% rate during the first quarter. Consumption should remain strong with interest rates low, oil prices lower than a year ago and stocks at record levels.

Inflation has reached the point where it is practically nonexistent. Both the wholesale and consumer price indices increased 0.2% during March. Consumer prices rose, largely because of a 3.7% jump in gasoline prices in the wake of a large rise in world crude oil costs. Gas prices aside, few prices were going up. The core portion of the consumer price index (CPI), which excludes the volatile prices for food and energy, rose just 0.1%. For the quarter ended in March, the core CPI rose at a 0.9% annual rate. That represents the smallest increase for any quarter in almost 35 years.

There are signs that wage increases may be slowing down after more than a year of robust gains. Average hourly earnings in March rose just 1.8%, the smallest year-over-year increase since November 1997. The slowdown comes as a surprise to many economists, who still believe that tighter labor markets lead to pressure from workers for higher wages. For much of the 1990s, wage gains have been muted, prompting concerns about stagnant living standards despite solid economic growth. Since late 1997, growth in wages has accelerated, helping workers recover some lost ground.

The global financial crisis seems to have bottomed out. Rather than talk of worldwide panic and depressions, there is evidence of financial stability and economic recoveries. Stock markets around the world have climbed at a good pace so far in 1999. The sharp slump in commodity prices seems to have reached its low point, with prices for some important commodities firming since the year began. The improved global picture eases the earlier concerns that spreading financial problems overseas could have caused a serious downturn in business activity in the United States.

Still, analysts expect the U.S. economy to slow down at any time, despite all of the factors that point to a continuation of strong growth. They point to a possible stock market correction that would hurt consumer spending as people feel less wealthy. They think inflation will increase as the labor markets remain tight and wages and prices are forced higher. They believe the Federal Reserve will decide to increase interest rates, which will brake the rise in spending and investment and slow the economy. At some point, economists may see their forecasts proved right, but so far the predictions of a slowdown have been dead wrong.

The House GOP leadership is showing flexibility on the minimum wage issue. The Democrats want to raise the minimum wage from $5.15 to $6.15 an hour in two yearly installments, while the Republicans may extend it to three years. The GOP's allies in business oppose the bill, but it has public support. A number of Republican moderates are expected to vote in favor of a hike, possibly wanting to deprive the Democrats of a potent political issue.

New draft legislation to ban workplace discrimination against parents will be pushed by the Clinton administration. It would prohibit firms from taking a parent off a career-advancing path out of the belief that the parent cannot meet the requirements of the job. According to labor experts, it would extend to millions of workers new grounds for suing employers who deny jobs or promotions because workers spend time on family matters. If enacted, it could also trigger a rash of discrimination claims, flooding the Federal court system, which is already overloaded with suits that allege bias based on gender, race, religion, age or disability. The proposal is the latest step in Clinton's effort to make the United States more hospitable to families, building on the Family and Medical Leave Act.

A change in electricity regulation may be on the way from Washington. The administration is proposing a new version of deregulation, which would alter how electricity is purchased and how producers provide it. A utility would have to provide 7.5% of its power from renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, by 2010. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would also be given new powers, including the authority to order competitive access to transmission lines, create regional grid-management agencies and review all utility mergers.